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(Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, August 2014)

Using new and updated data sources, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is now predicting that light-emitting diode (LED) lighting will achieve an 84% general-lighting-market penetration by 2030, substantially more than the 74% penetration DOE predicted just last year.

DOE estimates that, in 2013, LED-lighting sales comprised an overall 3% market share. By 2020, it believes, LED sales will comprise almost half (48%) of all U.S. general-lighting-market sales. By 2030, DOE believes, LEDs will dominate in each of the eight submarkets it examined, five indoor and three outdoor:

INDOOR LIGHTING

• General-Service Submarket
• Decorative-Lamp Submarket
• Directional Submarket
• Linear-Fixture Submarket
• Low-/High-Bay Submarket

OUTDOOR LIGHTING SUBMARKETS

• Street/Roadway Submarket
• Parking Submarket
• Building-Exterior Submarket

DOE predicts that LED use will grow most rapidly in the street/roadway and general-service lighting submarkets. In the street/roadway submarket, DOE is projecting an 83% LED market share by 2020 and an almost 100% share by 2030. LED penetration of the general-service submarket will proceed less rapidly, DOE says, suggesting a 55% market share by 2020. LEDs’ market penetration should accelerate after that date, however, and is expected to also achieve a near-100% submarket penetration by 2030.

DOE reports that, in 2013, lighting was responsible for about 17% of the nation’s total electricity consumption. Greater reliance on LEDs should reduce U.S. lighting-energy consumption by 15% in 2020 and by 40% in 2030, saving about $26 billion at today’s electricity prices.

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