Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

(Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, August 2014)

Using new and updated data sources, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is now predicting that light-emitting diode (LED) lighting will achieve an 84% general-lighting-market penetration by 2030, substantially more than the 74% penetration DOE predicted just last year.

DOE estimates that, in 2013, LED-lighting sales comprised an overall 3% market share. By 2020, it believes, LED sales will comprise almost half (48%) of all U.S. general-lighting-market sales. By 2030, DOE believes, LEDs will dominate in each of the eight submarkets it examined, five indoor and three outdoor:


  • General-Service Submarket
  • Decorative-Lamp Submarket
  • Directional Submarket
  • Linear-Fixture Submarket
  • Low-/High-Bay Submarket


  • Street/Roadway Submarket
  • Parking Submarket
  • Building-Exterior Submarket

DOE predicts that LED use will grow most rapidly in the street/roadway and general-service lighting submarkets. In the street/roadway submarket, DOE is projecting an 83% LED market share by 2020 and an almost 100% share by 2030. LED penetration of the general-service submarket will proceed less rapidly, DOE says, suggesting a 55% market share by 2020. LEDs’ market penetration should accelerate after that date, however, and is expected to also achieve a near-100% submarket penetration by 2030.

DOE reports that, in 2013, lighting was responsible for about 17% of the nation’s total electricity consumption. Greater reliance on LEDs should reduce U.S. lighting-energy consumption by 15% in 2020 and by 40% in 2030, saving about $26 billion at today’s electricity prices.

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